A Study on the Transmissive Impact of the Red Sea Crisis on the Resilience of Sino - US Supply Chains —— An Empirical Analysis Based on Event Study and Difference - in - Differences Model

Abstract

In the context of deep integration of the global economy, supply chains have become a key link connecting the economies of various countries. As a core shipping channel for Eurasian trade, the outbreak of the Red Sea crisis has had a significant impact on global supply chains. This paper takes A - share and US - listed companies with strong business ties to the Middle East as research samples and uses event study and difference - in - differences model to empirically test the transmissive impact of the Red Sea crisis on the resilience of Sino - US supply chains. The study finds that there are structural differences in the impact of the Red Sea crisis on the stock prices of relevant companies in China and the United States. Related companies in the Chinese market show positive excess returns, while those in the US market show negative ones; the crisis has led to a decline in trade credit of related companies, and private enterprises are more affected than state - owned enterprises. This study provides micro - level evidence for understanding the impact of geopolitical events on global supply chains and has reference significance for enterprises to optimize their supply chain layouts and for governments to formulate risk response policies.