Long-Term Evolution of Urban Wetland Ecosystem Service Values and Ecological Compensation Mechanisms under Carbon Neutrality Targets: A Case Study of East Lake, Wuhan

Abstract

Scientific assessment of the evolution characteristics of ecosystem service value (ESV) in urban wetlands is the foundation for constructing an ecological compensation mechanism. This study takes East Lake in Wuhan as the object and reconstructs a long-term continuous dataset of ESV from 2010 to 2024 by integrating multi-source data. Spearman correlation analysis is used to identify the time-dimensional trade-offs and synergistic relationships of service functions. Combined with the horizontal comparison of wetlands in the city, a cross-regional multi-dimensional ecological compensation framework is calculated and constructed. The results show that: (1) During the study period, the total ESV of East Lake showed a non-linear growth, and the value structure underwent a substantial replacement. Cultural services such as leisure and entertainment expanded rapidly and occupied an absolute dominant position, while basic natural functions such as climate regulation stagnated or declined. (2) There are clear trade-offs and synergistic effects among various services. Leisure and entertainment showed a significant negative correlation with air purification and scientific research and education; water purification, carbon sequestration and oxygen release showed a high positive correlation with habitat conservation. The wetlands in Wuhan present a spatial functional division pattern of “the core area dominates cultural services and the peripheral area undertakes ecological regulation”. (3) To address the mismatch between internal service trade-offs and external space, a market-based compensation path of “carbon trading + tourism feedback” was constructed. Calculations show that the potential annual carbon trading volume of East Lake is approximately RMB 4.28 million, and the dynamically extracted tourism feedback fund is approximately RMB 75.9 million per year. Based on this, a fund transfer payment framework of “core area feedback to peripheral regulating wetlands” under municipal-level coordination was established, providing a quantitative basis for regional wetland collaborative governance.