Digitalization for Loss Reduction and Quality Improvement: The Mitigation Effect of Agricultural Product Supply Chain Digitalization on Farmers’ Poverty Vulnerability Under Natural Disasters

Abstract

Focusing on the core issue of how digital transformation of agricultural product supply chains mitigates farmers’ poverty vulnerability under natural disasters, this study establishes an integrated analytical framework of “digital economy–supply chain transformation–disaster shock–poverty vulnerability mitigation” against the background of China’s agricultural transition from yield-oriented to quality-oriented development. Using cross-level integrated data consisting of CFPS micro-farmer panel data and county-level macro digitalization data from 2010 to 2018, this paper employs econometric methods including FGLS, Probit, and Bootstrap mediation effect tests to systematically explore the risk-resistant value of supply chain digitalization across the full chain: pre-disaster early warning, mid-disaster response, and post-disaster recovery. The results show that agricultural product supply chain digitalization (three dimensions: production, circulation, and supervision) significantly mitigates farmers’ poverty vulnerability under natural disasters, with circulation digitalization having the strongest poverty-reduction effect. Income optimization, transportation improvement, and health security constitute the three core mediating channels with significant multi-path linkage effects. The mitigation effect exhibits significant heterogeneity across eastern, central, and western regions and among farmers with different operation types. This study enriches the interdisciplinary research of digital economy and rural poverty, and provides empirical support and practical pathways for the government to implement targeted disaster-resistance and poverty-reduction policies, enterprises to optimize supply chain digitalization, and farmers to improve risk coping capacity.